Analysis of Business for Succesful Entrepreneurs

SLEPT analysis is a method of scanning the external environment in the business. SLEPT is termed a Social, Legal, Economic, Political and Technological analysis of the business environment. A best analysis and forecast is key to business success.

Developing Countries Should Change their Forex Reserves Portfolio

Bloomberg states that Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, is urging the government to diversify its $264.6 billion foreign-exchange reserves and hold fewer dollars. He said, “the major part of Indian reserves are in dollars -- that is something that’s a problem for us,”

Presently, there is a domination of US $ as a global currency reserves. Russia and China have already stepped up calls for a rethink of how global currency reserves are composed and managed. They are planning for a system to maintain the stability of the major reserve currencies.

It has increased further uncertainty to Developing countries foreign exchange reserves holding and investment as well. Foreign exchange reserves portfolio of developing countries like Nepal must be changed so as to avoid likelihood foreign exchange loss.

Likelihood Bank Holiday in US

Recently US president Obama proposed a new regulatory structure for US financial system declaring that it is needed to protect the rights of ordinary consumers and to guard against the murky practices that led to the current financial crisis. Analysts have predicted that he is planning for bank holiday in US in near future. It expected to happen for late August and early September.

On 26 June 2009 CNNmoney.com reports that in US the number of bank failures so far this year has already exceeded last year's total of 25, with an average of 7 failures per month. Local banks in Georgia, Minnesota and California were closed Friday by state regulators, bringing the total number of failed banks this year to 45, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Marketwatch.com quotes the Harry Schultz Letter (HSL) report "Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.”

In addition, globalresearch.ca refers the Bob Chapman’s influential International Forecaster’s report on the possibility of a so-called “bank holiday” planned for late August or early September. According to Chapman’s sources, U.S. embassies around the world are selling dollars and stockpiling money from respective countries where they operate.

Similarly, Schultz believes the global elite are in the process of engineering an FDR-style “bank holiday” of undetermined length in order to “sort-out the bank mess” and impose new bank rules. On March 5, 1933, in the depths of the banker engineered “Great Depression,” newly elected Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) declared a “bank holiday” that forced banks closed for four days. Roosevelt then rammed the Emergency Banking Act through the legislature. Passed by Congress on March 9, the act granted FDR near dictatorial control over the dealings of banks. It also allowed the Secretary of the Treasury the power to compel every person and business in the country to relinquish their gold and accept paper currency in exchange.

It was also known as the Emergency Banking Relief Act of the United States Congress spearheaded by President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression. It was passed on March 9, 1933. The act allowed a plan that would close down insolvent banks and reorganize and reopen those banks strong enough to survive

On March 10, Roosevelt issued Executive Order No. 6073, forbidding people from sending gold overseas and forbidding banks from paying out gold. A few weeks later, on April 5, Roosevelt issued Executive Order No. 6102 ordering Americans to deliver their gold and gold certificates to the Federal Reserve Bank in exchange for paper fiat money. In other words, it is called, FDR engaged in one of history’s greatest rip-offs — that is until now.

FDR not only ripped-off the American people, but foreigners holding dollars as well, thus ensuring the “Great Depression” would spread around the world like a bankster engineered contagion.

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On March 5, 1933, the day after Roosevelt's inauguration, he called a special session of Congress which instituted a mandatory four-day bank holiday. This act provided for the reopening of banks after federal inspectors had declared them to be financially secure.

As Schultz notes, another forced “bank holiday” will likely lead to a formal devaluation of the already broadsided U.S. dollar. “But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies,” which he feels is more likely.

Likelihood bank holiday in US in near future (August Last or early September) ultimately devaluates the dollar. Devaluation is also an interest of US because its goods will be competitive in global markets. If dollar heavily devaluates it will affect the securities and dollar deposited by the developing countries in US. Nepal may loose significant amount of dollars, if foreign exchange reserve is held in dollars. Therefore, it is better to purchase gold and silvers and held a forex reserve in Euro and pound so as avoid foreign exchange loss.